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TCU vs. SMU betting preview
2010-09-24
Dallas-area rivals take center stage tonight for college football betting enthusiasts as the SMU Mustangs host the TCU Horned Frogs. Sportsbook.com currently has TCU as lofty 17.5 favorites.
TCU is winners of 17 of its past 18 games and have its first three games by an average margin of 33 PPG. SMU defeated Washington State last week to mark its first win over a BCS school since 2000.
QB Andy Dalton leads TCU and has 32 career wins under his belt which is tops among FBS quarterbacks. After a sub-par opener, Dalton has sizzled in his past two games, completing 82 percent of his passes with four touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). Jeremy Kerley and Bart Johnson have 13 catches apiece with three of Kerley’s grabs coming in the end zone. RB Ed Wesley powers the ground game with 384 rushing yards (8.2 YPC) and four scores.
SMU’s success on moving the football against the fourth-ranked defense in the nation (TCU allows 223 YPG) rests on the right arm of Kyle Padron. Similar to Dalton, Padron has been great in his past two games after a poor opener. He threw six touchdowns and ran for a score in SMU’s two wins over UAB and WSU. Three Mustangs players have double-digit catches and multiple touchdowns this year, including Aldrick Robinson who scored three TD in last week’s win.
TCU has won nine of the past ten meetings and the following betting trend also favors TCU due to Gary Patterson’s ability to keeps his teams focused after big wins:
Patterson is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. The average score was TCU 38.1, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 4*).
Check Sportsbook.com’s betting guides for more betting tips on this weekend’s football betting board.
Sticking with the run defense theme, this highly-rated trend likes the Under:
Play Under - Any team against the total (SMU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (26-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*).
Make your move to Sportsbook.com now and bet on the TCU vs. SMU pointspread at reduced juice (-105).
MAJOR NEW FOOTBALL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN COMING FROM WILL HILL2010-04-05New advertising agency shows its paces
UK football fans can expect an avalanche of new William Hill advertisements this weekend as the company launches its latest football campaign - the first created by its new agency The Bank.
The marketing publication Drum reports that the London-based ad agency was tasked at the beginning of March with reinforcing the brand’s association with football ahead of this year’s World Cup in South Africa, with the campaign target the positioning of William Hill as the ‘home of betting’.
The creative idea will run across all media activity at regional level, handled by both The Bank and the in-house marketing department.
The television element was produced by the agency’s in-house production department and directed by creative founder Ian Cassie.
Kristof Fahy, brand and marketing director at William Hill, told The Drum: “We are trusted – with over 75 years of experience and a huge presence both on the high street and online. Simply put we are the home of betting in the UK and as such, we have a unique place in the minds of the British public.
"This next period of activity will coincide with our continued drive to offer customers an unrivalled experience online, on the phone and on the high street. The Bank showed the kind of strategic insight and clarity of creative thinking we are looking for.”
Cassie added: ”Our task has been to take all the great things that the William Hill brand stands for and re-present it in a creative idea that is unique, flexible and persuasive which can work as effectively in a TV spot as on a betting slip.”
CFB: Rose Bowl Game - OHIO STATE vs. OREGON (5:00 PM ET, ABC)2010-01-04With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Still, this makes for one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire bowl season. The Ducks are the favorites, laying 4-points, but the Buckeyes have been red hot and typically do their best work against good running teams like Oregon. On paper it seems like it should be a competitive contest. According to Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends page, ¾ of bettors like Oregon to win by at least the 4-point margin.
The Big Ten has lost the L3 games in this series to the Pac 10, part of an overall run of dominance by the latter in head-to-head bowl play. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. Ohio State is looking to snap a three-game bowl losing streak, while the Ducks have won their last two. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s team is a 3.5-point favorite, but underdogs have covered eight of these teams’ L10 bowl games.
The Big Ten’s struggles in the Rose Bowl are well documented, no wins in Pasadena since Wisconsin’s 2000 triumph. However, it’s also true that the only Pac-10 team to win the Rose Bowl since 2001 was USC and Ohio State actually won its last Rose Bowl bid (20-17 over Arizona State in 1997). Oregon features a dynamic spread offense led by quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (15 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns) and running back LeMichael James (1,476 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns). Oregon’s offense topped 40 points in seven of its last nine games. However, Ohio State is capable of neutralizing this attack with its staunch run defense, which allowed 83.0 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. More impressively, Ohio State’s defense shut out three opponents and surrendered 14 points or fewer in eight of its last 12 games. Look for head coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes to slow down the Duck attack and possibly reverse history here.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
OHIO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 31.3, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OHIO ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (54-18 since 1992.) (75%, +34.2 units. Rating = 4*)
ROSE BOWL Series Trend: It seems hard to believe, but Ohio State is making its first Rose Bowl appearance since ’97, a 20-17 win over Arizona State. The Buckeyes will be looking to snap a 3-game SU & ATS losing streak by the Big Ten in the “Grandaddy of them all”. Five straight Rose Bowl games have gone OVER the total. Be it coincidental or not, the designated home team is on a 9-1 ATS run, and this year that team is…Oregon.
CFB: Meineke Car Care Bowl - NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH (4:30 PM ET, ESPN)2009-12-28Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but they have lost the prior two. As a 2.5-point dog according to Sportsbook.com, oddsmakers are projecting a third straight loss.
North Carolina was 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in ’09 and seemed to play their best football at the end, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five contests. Pittsburgh looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago. Overall, they were 9-3 but lost their last two. They haven’t won a bowl game since ’03 and are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span.
Pittsburgh finished the season with back-to-back losses to West Virginia, 19-16, and Cincinnati, 45-44, and as a result cost itself the Big East title. The Panthers were defeated three times this season by an average score of just 3.7 points. North Carolina, on the other hand, was all over the map, defeating Virginia Tech (9-3) and Miami (9-3), but losing to N.C. State (5-7) and Virginia (3-9). Pittsburgh’s 5.0 yards per rush will be tested against a North Carolina defense that allowed just 2.8 YPR. Expect freshman Dion Lewis to eventually wear down the Tar Heels’ defensive line, however, in what should be a low-scoring victory for the Panthers. Both FoxSheet Game Estimators call for a seven-point Pittsburgh victory. Roll with that advice. Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, North Carolina 16.
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Series trend: This ACC-Big East bowl series has been dominated by the ACC, 5-1 ATS since ’02, as West Virginia won the game last year over North Carolina but failed to cover. The OVER & UNDER have alternated each of the previous seven years’ totals, meaning the pattern indicates UNDER for ’09. Interestingly, that same alternating trend has developed for the favorite/underdog result as well, putting the favorite in place to get it done this season, that being Pittsburgh.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Super Situation
Play Against - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 PYA) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
Butch Davis is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) in all games he has coached. The average score was Davis 25.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Visit the BETTING TRENDS page to see where bettors are placing their faith for this game.
CFB: Houston at East Carolina (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)2009-12-04The two teams that were expected to be playing in the Conference USA Championship game are doing just that. However, the manner with which each team got to this destination was not as expected. East Carolina is the host for the contest, but a 2.5-point underdog, as oddsmakers believe their four defeats in ’09 are a concern. Houston has lost twice, but comes into this game scoring a lofty 44.9 PPG, and 82% of bettors on the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page think that will be the difference in the game.
It might have took all season, but two of the teams that were thought to be in the Conference USA championship game in early October have emerged as division champions. East Carolina held off Southern Mississippi 25-20 and now has a chance to be back-to-back champs. The Pirates (8-4, 5-6 ATS) advanced to the championship contest based on many of the same things that helped them all season. Sixth-year senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney led the way throwing for 269 yards and the defensive line made play after play, allowing East Carolina survive. East Carolina is at home, however, only .500 against the spread in the last 52 home games.
Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) was supposed to play in this game a season ago, but was derailed by Rice. The Cougars made sure that didn’t happen two years in a row by obliterating the Owls 73-14 and moving on to first championship conflict. Quarterback Case Keenum will bring the nation’s top passing game into Greenville, averaging over 440 yards thru the air, with its dizzying array of pass patterns and movement. Keenum is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award and has terrific receivers to throw to. The Cougars are consistent offensively, scoring in 45 of 48 quarters this season, which is the highest average in college football at 93.7 percent. Houston is only 10-22 ATS in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.
East Carolina pulls the upset if Pinkney throws accurately and RB Dominique Lindsay runs wild. Both are possibilities as Houston allowed 445 yards per game (those same teams averaged 370 YPG) and was 113th in run defense. The best way to beat Houston is a cliché, but it’s true, keep the offense on the sidelines. The Pirates can steal a win since they are 13-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.
ECU is lucky to be here. Southern Miss fumbled and lost the ball at the one going in for touchdown and had blocked extra point returned for two points. Houston has to block a very good defensive line to give Keenum time to throw. This offense is unstoppable if pass patterns are given time to develop (ask losers). On defense, the Cougars will allow a ton of yards, but need to make a few stops or force turnovers. Houston historically has a vast collection of bad angles; nonetheless they are 8-3 ATS THIS season.
Here are numbers to chew on about this C-USA battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points. The road team has won four of last five meetings and covered the spread each time. Additionally, in head to head matchups, Houston won by 21 points and East Carolina by 14.2.
The StatFox Power Line shows Houston by 2, so oddsmakers at Sportsbook have done an adequate job in pricing the game.
Boise State Needs Blowout for BCS and Backers2009-11-20Boise State continues its quest for perfection on Friday night, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in a televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was only seen on highlights. Thus, Boise State needs a gigantic blowout to impress voters to keep open the possibility of a Fiesta Bowl date. They are a 23-point favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
A BCS berth is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.
This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.
Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.
Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.
Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage any way we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.
Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.
Sportsbook.com has Boise State as 23-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.
That doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”
A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs. Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.
The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2. The StatFox Power Line shows Boise State by 26, and 85% of bettors at Sportsbook seem to agree that the actual line might be too low.
CFB: Buffalo a short favorite vs. Bowling Green (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)2009-11-04MAC East Division combatants do business on Tuesday night on a nationally televised cable contest. Neither Bowling Green (3-5 SU& ATS) nor Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are going anywhere this season, mired in the lower dwellings of the MAC. This is especially painful for Buffalo coming off a league championship season and bowl game. Sportsbook.com has Buffalo as 3.5-point favorite with total of 53.5. Action is split fairly evenly on the side according to the BETTING TRENDS page, but players are favoring the UNDER on the total.
The Bulls are a team that lives on the edge. Last season half of Buffalo’s 14 games were decided by six points or less and they were 4-3. In 2009, five of their games have come down to seven or less points and they are 2-3. Buffalo’s offense has to be more productive in the red zone. The Bulls are second in the MAC in total offense at 410.9 yards per game, but are a pedestrian eighth in points scored at 23.1. Buffalo needs to put up points and are 12-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.
The Bulls have a terrific receiving trio in Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack. What’s killing Buffalo is -7 turnover margin and a secondary loaded with backups due to injury.
Bowling Green had their two game winning streak snapped by Central Michigan in last outing. The 343 yards passing only netted 10 points, as they finished with 20 net yards rushing, which has been the story of their season. The Falcons do prefer to throw the ball; nonetheless having the worst running game in the country at 61.6 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry has to be unacceptable.
That places all the pressure on quarterback Tyler Sheehan and receiver Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions and nine touchdowns. Passing teams always have a chance to cover and Bowling Green is 9-2 AT in road games over the last two seasons.
The Falcons defense allows 210.6 yards per game on the ground against teams that only average 145 YPG, making them a porous group. Buffalo’s Ike Nduka has become a solid runner after they lost standout running back James Starks before the year began. Bowling Green is 1-5 SU and ATS this season when they allow a back to run for 100 or more yards.
This will be just the second time the Bulls have been a favorite this season and they are 3-4 ATS all-time as MAC home favorites. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS as conference road underdogs since 2001, however 8-1 ATS as visiting dogs over the last three seasons.
ESPN2 has this MAC matchup at 7 Eastern, with the mission for each squad to win remaining last four games and possibly snag a bowl bid with 7-5. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in four meetings with Bowling Green since joining the league is 1999, with the visitor having covered three in a row.
The StatFox Power Line indicates Buffalo by 1, showing potential value on the underdog at Sportsbook.com.